Friday, November 03, 2006

It’s not the end of the world as we know it

I know the press has to sell the news, but isn’t silly how they exaggerate everything?

People are calling this next election the “Democratic wave”. At the same time, analysts think democrats *might* pick up 4 or 5 seats in the senate.

If you look at this graph (senate distribution since 1857) you can realize how stupid this notion of “great change” is. If it does happen, it will be a blip.

You want a tidal wave? Look at 1866 when Republicans gained 18 seats, or 1960 when the Democrats won 16. You want a “great divide”? Look at the 40th Congress (1867-1869) where the Republicans lead 57 to 9 or the 75th Congress (1937-1939) when the Democrats had 76 against 16.

There is no huge change going on. And that is good.