Thursday, April 27, 2006

A well-oiled political machine

It’s always surprising to see how irrational people are.

Take this ‘oil crisis’ for instance. Neither Republicans nor Democrats are making any sense, and part of the reason for that is that the public’s reaction for the crisis doesn’t make any sense either.

Democrats have been telling us for over 30 years that oil was about to end. That SUVs were the creation of evil, that the US should decrease consumption immediately and rise taxes like Europe, and that at the end if nothing was done this would lead us to our demise.

Republicans on the other hand, have been telling us for the last 30 years that there was plenty of oil, that SUVs only existed because price of oil was cheap, and that once the real decline on production started the market would alert consumers and ultimately we would find a replacement when it was really needed.

Well, both were right. And the rise of oil prices is proving it.

Oil’s price is going up because the balance of supply and demand is shifting. Partly because of whom the top exporters are (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Norway, Iran, Venezuela, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Nigeria, Mexico, and Algeria), partly because of global growth, and also because of geopolitical circumstances.

In any way, the overall message that higher prices tells us is that, at least in short term, it is time for a change.

Isn’t that exactly what democrats wanted? Isn’t it happening exactly the way Republicans said it would?

For instance, one of the proposed solutions for the crises is the use of ethanol. Brazil has been using it for decades. Why? Because oil price in Brazil has been kept artificially high for decades.

Oil prices have been going up for years. Nobody likes to pay more at the pumps, and that is easy to understand. But to think that this problem is going to be solved by splitting up oil companies or forcing them to pay CEO’s less is just ludicrous.

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

endossando o coro:

jose serra esta mal da saude.

talves cancer. talves coisa mais urgente.

abs

Anonymous said...

Ei, Paulo, tu viu isso? Ayn Rand, Brad Pitt e Angelina Jolie.

Anonymous said...

Argh... Mas pelo menos vao fazer o filme. So quero ver como vai ser, ja que adaptar aquele livro enorme nao deve ser facil.

Igor Taam said...

Caramba... esse projeto de filmar o Atlas já vem de longe. Como o Paulo já disse, finalmente vão fazer.

Anonymous said...

Há um erro factual nesse artigo:

"Because oil price in Brazil has been kept artificially high for decades".

O preço do petróleo era mantido artificialmente abaixo (e não acima) do preço internacional até a emenda da quebra do monopólio passar em 1995.

Até então o contribuinte pagava a conta para que os donos de automóveis (e os dirigentes da petrobras, é bom não esquecer) lucrassem às suas custas.

Hoje os dirigentes da petrobras continuam lucrando, como sempre, mas os donos de automóveis pagam o preço internacional do petróleo levemente acrescido de impostos.

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Anonymous said...

Homero,
Nao tenho dados para confirmar (qualquer dado historico sobre o Brasil eh dificil de achar) mas acho estranho.

O que eu sei eh que hoje em dia se paga muito mais no Brasil do que nos EUA, por exemplo. Essa "leve" parte dos impostos nao eh tao leve assim:

1 litro de gasolina no BR custa 1.75 - 1 galao (4.546) custa 7.95. Usando o dolar 2.1, custa 3.78 dolares o galao. Hoje mesmo eu paguei 2.95 o galao. E olha que o preco aqui subiu muito nas ultimas semanas, enquanto o preco caiu um pouco no ultimo mesmo no Brasil.

Anonymous said...

Este teu cálculo foi engraçado para os porto-alegrenses da platéia, Paulo. O preço da gasolina aqui é R$2,75 por litro. O álcool está uns R$2,50. O álcool aqui sempre é um absurdo inominável, mas esta diferença está ridícula.

Anonymous said...

Cisco,
Putz!

Pra falar a verdade achei esse preco no Estadao, depois de muita procura. Eh incrivel como eh dificil achar esse tipo de informacao do Brasil...

Cláudio said...

Realmente, só no Estaão que a gasolina está este preço. Abasteci ontem e paguei 2.699 no litro da gasolina.

Anonymous said...

Paulo,

Resolvi não colocar aspas no "levemente" para não explicitar a ironia.

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