Iran v. Britain: Who Blinked?
Very interesting article. I was especially interested in the part about the political power that groups like Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and allied institutions like the Basij militia have in Iran.
Whether diplomacy will really work against Iran is debatable. I do think they are unstable enough that it might work. But what concerns me is that power will soon change hands in the US and UK. And there is a great chance that in both places more “peaceful” governments will take place.
It is usually in these times when nuts go wild.
2 comments:
I completely agree with the article.
I repost here the comment I did
I do completely agree with the author. The iranian move did not make sense. They capture 15 british servicemen just to freed them 2 weeks later ? Does not make much sense. For some time the Supreme Leader has been critical of Ahmedinejad.
Probably theRevolutionary guard tried to rekindle the revolutionary fervor strenghtening the radicals.., but the move did not work.
The supreme leader Kameney forced Ahmedinejad to release the hostages.
Tehran power struggle intensifies
Robert Tait in Tehran
Wednesday January 24, 2007
Guardian Unlimited
Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
Iran's president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, faces a fierce challenge from the man he defeated in the 2005 presidential election. Photograph: AP
Iran's beleaguered president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, is facing a powerful challenge from his fiercest political rival for control of the country's nuclear and economic policies.
Hashemi Rafsanjani, a pragmatic conservative who was defeated by Mr Ahmadinejad in the 2005 presidential election, believes Iran may have to yield to western demands to suspend uranium enrichment in order to save the country's Islamic system from collapse.
He is trying to persuade the country's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei - who has the final say in all state matters - that further negotiations are essential to avoid a potentially disastrous conflict with the US or Israel.
Article continues
Mr Rafsanjani demonstrated his growing influence over the nuclear issue in a meeting today with Britain's ambassador to Tehran, Geoffrey Adams. He told Mr Adams that Iran was willing to submit to "any verifying measures by the responsible authorities" to prove the peaceful nature of its nuclear programme, which many in the west suspect is aimed at developing an atomic bomb.
Diplomatic sources said Mr Rafsanjani appeared to be offering full verification only as part of a negotiated future deal, rather than immediate access. Iran this week announced that it had denied access to 38 inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN's nuclear watchdog.
Mr Rafsanjani's conciliatory stance contrasts starkly with Mr Ahmadinejad's defiant opposition to the suspension of uranium enrichment. The president's rhetoric has been blamed in many circles for a recent UN security resolution imposing sanctions on Iran for its nuclear activities, which many in the west suspect is aimed at developing the atomic bomb.
Mr Ahmadinejad faced down his critics this week by vowing to continue his policies and declaring that 10 more UN resolutions would not deny Iran its nuclear rights. He also told state television that "wise voices" in the US would prevent the Bush administration from launching a military strike against Iran.
Mr Rafsanjani - a former president and pillar of Iran's political establishment - disagrees, and is understood to have formed a committee overseeing the nuclear negotiations. The committee will assess whether the country's international standing has been damaged by Mr Ahmadinejad's radical statements.
"Before the sanctions, Rafsanjani hoped Iran could obtain its enrichment objectives through mutual understanding with the west. But now he thinks we have reached a dangerous point and that a step should be taken backwards in the hope that two forward can be taken later." said Mohammad Atrianfar, a respected political commentator and associate of Mr Rafsanjani.
"He doesn't see negotiation as a sign of weakness. He wants to limit the impact of the sanctions and get Mr Khamenei and the government to accept that if Iran faces mounting sanctions or a military attack or any crisis which damages the economic life of the people, then there is a possibility of the whole system collapsing," he said.
"Things have changed since the early days of the Islamic revolution, when people would sacrifice their lives. Now they will only defend the system if it provides them a safe life."
Disclosure of Mr Rafsanjani's move to re-establish himself comes after the Guardian last week reported that Mr Ahmadinejad's authority was under pressure from critical MPs and an increasingly concerned Mr Khamenei. His re-emergence contradicts widely-held assumptions that his influence had diminished following his presidential defeat. His increasing prominence follows last month's electoral triumph in topping the poll in elections to the experts' assembly, an important clerical body.
Mr Rafsanjani also criticised Mr Ahmadinejad's government this week for failing to privatise state enterprises, a policy agreed under Iran's constitution and supported by Mr Khamenei. He said Iran's economy would be overtaken by poorer neighbouring countries if prized national assets remained under state control. Mr Ahmadinejad - who has vowed to spread wealth more evenly and alleviate poverty - favours a bigger government role in the economy.
Mr Rafsanjani's comments added to a chorus of anger over Mr Ahmadinejad's economic policies, which have been widely denounced for stoking inflation and failing to cure unemployment. Dismay over rising prices has driven supposedly like-minded MPs in the fundamentalist-dominated parliament to launch a petition summoning the president to answer questions. It has so far gathered 63 signatures and needs only a further nine to be effective. Meanwhile, proceedings are underway to impeach four of his ministers accused of incompetence.
"Even though the majority of MPs are fundamentalists like Ahamdinejad, the level of dissatisfaction is much higher than previous governments faced from parliament," Akbar A'alami, a reformist MP told the Guardian. "The criticisms go beyond political groupings. I think it has reached a critical level."
Presenting next year's budget, an unrepentant Mr Ahmadinejad told MPs on Sunday that he had controlled inflation and said it was running at 12%. Independent estimates put it at 30%. Critics say rising food and housing costs are hurting the poor, whom Mr Ahmadinejad had pledged to help.
Insiders say anger towards the president is sufficient for a majority of MPs to want to impeach him and remove him from office. However, Mr Khamenei is reluctant to sanction such a step, out of concern for the trauma it could inflict on the system rather than personal loyalty to the president.
Yet if the economy continues to deteriorate, Mr Ahmadinejad's position could become vulnerable, some analysts think. "The supreme leader is absolutely sensitive to the rate of inflation," said Saeed Leylaz, an economic analyst. "He has issued one public criticism, three months ago when inflation was lower than it is now. If it is even higher three months from now, then surely Mr Khamenei will not remain silent."
Post a Comment